Investment analyst Michael Binetti, Credit Suisse,
is out with a bold prediction: “We believe the secondhand/resale market
could grow much faster in the near-term than the +mid-teens growth that
industry sources project.”
As current projections stand, the
combined digitally-native resale and the traditional, largely
brick-and-mortar thrift/donation secondhand fashion market will reach
$51 billion by 2023, according to ThredUp, a major player in the resale fashion market and the primary source of the industry’s data. By 2023, the resale segment is expected to account for 45% of the secondhand apparel market’s sales or $23 billion, growing from a mere 25% ($7 billion) of the total $28 billion in 2019.
The RealReal, the recently made public luxury resale company, the privately-held ThredUp, and social commerce peer-to-peer marketplace Poshmark are the current resale leaders.
Dynamic growth in the online sales channel will be the main driver of growth, gaining twice as fast as thrift/donation or over 30% per year from 2019 to 2023. This will be thanks to consumers, most especially women, gaining awareness of the convenience of this new model as an alternative to giving bags of old clothes to Goodwill, Salvation Army or local thrift stores.
As mentioned, Credit Suisse’s Binette expects it to advance even faster, though he didn’t speculate just how much faster it will grow. However, he said, “We’ve networked extensively with management teams across the secondhand retail category and the most consistent comment we’ve heard is that the industry unanimously believes it is barely scratching the surface with the addressable market of consumers that would consider re-selling/consigning online.”
Supply, not demand is the industry’s challenge
Increasingly, women are willing to give secondhand shopping a try, with ThredUp reporting the number of women who’ve purchased secondhand has grown from 44 million in 2017 to 56 million in 2018, roughly half of all adult women.However, the linchpin for resale’s future is getting inside people’s closets and convincing them to turn over enough good-old stuff that online buyers will want.
After all, they have been filling their closets with off-price (Marshalls, TJ Maxx), fast fashion (Zara, H&M), value chain (Walmart, Target) clothing at an aggressive pace, but this isn’t the stuff that a vibrant resale market is made on. The ThredUp study, supplemented with data from Credit Suisse, estimates that about 35% of consumers’ closets in 2018 are accounted for by clothing from these three sources and their share has grown from 28% since 2008.
Instead, the stuff consumers are most likely to want to buy in resale is department store (14% share of closet in 2018) and other specialty retail (13%) brands, which they also may want to hold onto longer. Mid-priced fashion (Gap, J.Crew) that comprises 20% share of closet today may go for ThredUp or Poshmark, but not The RealReal.
It isn’t consumer demand that could hold the fashion resalers back. It’s getting their hands on enough stuff that their customers will want. As a result, each player’s consignment strategies are critical to their future success.
Getting real is The RealReal’s key consignment strategy
The RealReal identifies unlocking the ~$200 billion of luxury goods available in the U.S. for the resale market as its greatest market opportunity, as well its most critical challenge.“The biggest obstacle to growth for REAL is acquiring the right level and types of supply,” writes Cowen’s Oliver Chen, in a report on a recent meeting with The RealReal’s CEO Julia Wainwright and CFO Matt Gustke.
“Management highlights it is more difficult to get someone to consign for the first time,” he explains, but adds that after their first consignment, The RealReal customers typically return two-to-three times a year.
With Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Prada and Hermès its leading brands, The RealReal has found making face-to-face connections with wary luxury consumers critical to getting prime merchandise. So, it operates three stores, two in NYC and one on Melrose Avenue, Los Angeles, where well-heeled shoppers can come in and meet with authentication experts. Such personal connection raises their comfort level.
The RealReal also operates 11 locations nationwide for jewelry, watch and handbag valuations, plus the convenience of free “white glove” in-home consultation and pickup in 20 markets.
In a previous discussion with CEO Julie Wainwright, she shared that not only do the stores pave the way for better consignments, they also result in an order size twice as large as is typical online. “It is a marketing tactic and sales tactic and product acquisition tactic,” Wainwright said. “We find we get lots of high-quality consignments when we do pop-ups,” like one recently in Las Vegas.
The RealReal is approaching half a million buyers and if turning new RealReal buyers into consignors is its primary way to source new supply, it has a long runway.
According to the BCG-Altagamma True-Luxury survey among consumers who met a threshold of luxury spending (~$5,500 in past year), only half of the U.S. luxury consumers surveyed have participated in the secondhand market. Among the other half, 21% have sold and bought, 18% have purchased only and 11% have only sold.
The RealReal is still in the early days in tapping its potential market. “Resale drives a perpetual consumption cycle that fuels recurring consignments and purchases as it provides liquidity to consignors to purchase new and secondhand items – this should support solid GMV (gross merchandise value) growth over the long-term,” Chen writes.
ThredUp has it in the bag
ThredUp’s consignment strategy is literally in-the-bag with its “Clean Out Your Closet” service where a potential consigner requests a postage-paid Clean Out Kit to bag up unwanted items. These item can either be sold for cash or credit to use at Reformation or Polarn O. Pyret for childrenswear or donated to charity along with a $5 cash gift.The company notes, however, that it is picky about what consignments it accepts: only items in pristine condition with no damage or alterations, including missing sizing information. Given those criteria, ThredUp reports it only retains about 40% of the items shipped for resale. The rejects can be returned to the sender for a small fee or donated to charity.
Right now, through October 20, ThredUp is hot on the trail for fall fashion, offering a 20% extra payout for seasonally-appropriate sweaters, coats, boots, overalls, jumpsuits and designer handbags. In-demand brands it is on the hunt for include Madewell, Patagonia, Lululemon, Everlane, Sorel, Eloquii and Torrid.
ThredUp is also crossing over into physical retail in new partnerships just announced with Macy’s and J.C. Penney. ThredUp departments will shortly open in 40 Macy’s and 30 J.C. Penney locations.
These locations will give consumers an extra dose of confidence and credibility to ThredUp when they first meet the brand there. No word that consignments will be accepted there, but one can imagine each department will have a stack of clean-out bags readily at hand.
Poshmark takes a do-It-yourself approach
Poshmark claims to be the No. 1 fashion buying and selling platform, with some 50 million sellers. A recent survey by Raymond James supports that claim, with 67% of women surveyed recognizing the Poshmark name, as compared with 44% who know ThredUp and 12% The RealReal.But unlike ThredUp and The RealReal, Poshmark operates under a different business model. It doesn’t take possession of the clothing for sale. It works as a peer-to-peer marketplace where sellers list items and Poshmark takes a piece of the action once a sale is completed.
With its stripped-down business model, it gives sellers the tools to make sales, but also requires them to do the heavy lifting to photograph, describe, and price each item. Poshmark provides a prepaid shipping label when an item is bought, but the seller has to package it and take it to the post office to ship.
It also supports sellers with what it describes as virtual shopping parties where people gather on the app to enjoy selling events around a theme or brand. Success in fashion has given Poshmark confidence to branch out into home decor and housewares.
Awareness builds customers and consignors
To attract people to the circular fashion resale economy, both Credit Suisse’s Binetti and Cowen’s Chen identify building awareness of the potential of resale platforms like The RealReal, ThredUp and Poshmark is critical.To create awareness, all three companies have taken to television to get the word out. In that Poshmark is the leader, running 14,872 spots in the last 30 days and ranking No. 311 in terms of overall advertising spending, according to ISpot.TV. ThredUp (2,674 airings and No. 839 in sending) and The RealReal (2,533 airings and No. 1,020 in spending) lag far behind.
And from that awareness, consignments grow. Signs are that American consumers are already lightening their load, as the ThredUp study reports consumers have reduced the number of items in their closets from 164 in 2017 to 136 in 2019. But that also means, they may have fewer choice items to pass along into the resale channel.
Ultimately Poshmark’s heavy-lifting in the awareness department may be a blessing for both ThredUp and The RealReal. After a few times a person does all the work on the back end to make a sale –or not make a sale if the price isn’t right or the description fails – my guess is that people looking to get in on the resale action may quickly turn to the frictionless and more convenient alternative that ThredUp and The RealReal offer.
Poshmark may open the door for customers to try online resale, but I bet that ThredUp and The RealReal will be the ones that will keep them around for the long haul and get the best pickings from their closets.
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